Adaption of Windows Vista: Real Numbers

Someone recently asked on Experts-Exchange how many people are using Windows Vista in the world. I decided to do some research (ad hoc mind you) what the real numbers are. From my own web site, these are the stats:

Operating Systems  
Versions Hits Percent
Windows XP 15116 61.7 %
Windows NT 39 0.1 %
Windows Me 19 0 %
Windows Vista 6113 24.9 %
Windows CE 13 0 %
Windows 98 180 0.7 %
Windows 95 1 0 %
Windows 2003 427 1.7 %
Windows 2000 878 3.5 %

93% of the operating systems that visited my site were Windows, so if we are just talking about Windows itself that would be:

Windows XP: 66.3%

Windows Vista: 26.8%

Windows 2000: 3.8%

In the thread, I gave the number as 32.8%. This is because I was manually counting from analog’s log. The numbers at boingboing.net are a bit more interesting. To date this month, boingboing.net has 1,126,157 unique visitors. Their break out given by AWstats is as follows:

Windows XP 59.4 %
Windows NT 0.9 %
Windows Me 0.2 %
Windows Vista 2.4 %
Windows CE 0 %
Windows 98 0.6 %
Windows 95 0 %
Windows 2003 0.5 %
Windows 2000 3.2 %
Windows 3.xx 0 %

If we break this down to just Windows, that would be:

Windows XP: 87.9%
Windows Vista: 3.6%
Windows 2000: 4.8%

So how does this compare to Windows XP’s launch? We would need some access.log files from around October 2001. I found AWstats for a Princeton department website covering this time period. Two months after the XP launch (12/2001), 6.4% of the users were using Windows XP to access the site. In 4/1/02 (6 months after the Windows XP launch), the number jumped to 10.3%. In 12/2002, Windows XP was at 23.8%. Another site called mariley.com gives some data to play with: In 1/01/02, 1.8% visits were from Windows XP, 69.7% for Windows 98. 4/1/02 (6 months after Windows XP launch) produces Windows XP at 8.3%, Windows 98 at 58.3%. Computerking.org gives XP 2.76% in 01/01/02 and 4.98% on 4/01/02. There’s a nice chart from W3C on historic OS usage here.

Taking the average of all three of these stats and you get a 3.56% growth rate for Windows XP 2 months after launch. It took around a year and half for Windows XP surpass the Windows 98 market share at 34.63% verses 24.93%. We really won’t know how Vista is really doing for probably at least a year, but given these current statistics (and given they after a holiday season), Vista seems to be keeping pace with Windows XP’s launch.

IDC predicts strong growth for Windows Vista. It’s been 5 long years since the last update. I predict Vista numbers to soar past Windows XP’s.

-Soli Deo Gloria

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